Look out for Black Swans
I must recommend a book. But as I do I feel like I am recommending a course of medication which will make you feel queasy first but will ultimately be worth it.
In other word's it's not an easy read.
Sure there are enough amusing stories to keep you involved, but at times it goes a bit heavy on the statistics and technicalities of his argument. If I was being over critical I would also say the author uses it as a platform to have a pop at some of his critics.
But given the above caveat I would strongly recommend "the Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Someone sent me a Haiku (a minimalist form Japanese poetry) the other day, and after a couple of glasses of wine on a flight I thought I would sum up the book in Haiku form, it seemed to work at 30,000ft:
Our world is random
Expect and prepare for change
But do not predict
A Black Swan, as Taleb defines it s a large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations which has a major effect on things we do.
Here is some more info from Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
Some general examples:
- The birth and growth of the internet
- September 11th 2001
- 1995 Kyoto earthquake in Japan (knocked out 1/3 of Japan's export capacity)
So what has this to do with Consumer Authentication and trust on the internet? Well it might help if I outline a few examples which I would class as Black Swans that are relevant:
- HMRC data breach in UK (25 million consumer records missing)
- T. J. Maxx in US (having 46 million credit card records stolen)
- Estonia's internet sites overwhelmed in cyber terrorist attacks
Why are these Black Swans in our world? Well firstly, no-one saw them coming.
Secondly they had a profound and deep affect on consumer trust on the internet.
I don't think anyone could have predicted any one of those particular "Black Swans" but I am pretty sure I can make a prediction which will hold up over time (and I do so without contradicting the Black swan theory).
"I predict that before the end of 2008 there will be a similar size to the aforementioned "scandal" that is related to Identity, trust or consumer authentication within Europe."
Doesn't take a rocket scientist to make that kind of prediction, but what I am trying to say is that as these rare but ultimately game changing events come about in the online world, consumer trust will continue to be eroded.
I am not a doomsayer, I don't believe that the online commerce world is broken, I just think that as more and more of these things happen many consumers will shy away from using the internet to it's maximum potential.
We should be preparing for Black Swann's in our own little world of online consumer authentication as each time an event comes along, consumers leave the building.
But as I say, read the book!
