Jeff Richards' Demand Insights

It's finally here. The world's largest broadcaster - the UK's BBC - today launched the beta version of iPlayer, its comprehensive online video offering. iPlayer is arguably the largest online move made by a broadcaster to date - over 400 hours of programming available each week via an electronic programming guide (EPG) which enables consumers to pre-program (think TiVo) favorites and choices for the week, etc.

UK residents can set up an account here. The rest of us will have to wait (it's geo-IP restricted)... :)

PS - Yes, the BBC iPlayer utilizes VeriSign's Kontiki content delivery platform, as do similar services from Channel4 and Sky Anytime.

Posted by Jeff Richards at 09:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

I'm continually amazed at how quickly content and information is viewed and shared in the web 2.0 community. I use a popular site called SlideShare to share ppt slides and other presentations from conferences, etc. and I am continually amazed at how quickly the information I put up is viewed and shared.

For instance, I put my presentation (CDN's: What's Next) from HostingCon in Chicago on SlideShare on Thursday morning. 24 hours later, the presentation had been viewed 60 times. I posted my presentation from DCIA a month ago, and it's been viewed more than 350 times. Neither presentation is funny or entertaining - they're just basic presentation content on CDN's and Peer to Peer technology. Pretty amazing.

Now, let's put this in perspective. The number 1 viewed slideshow of all time on SlideShare is ShiftHappens, which has been viewed more than 170,000 times (it's actually worth viewing - check it out). Remember, these are PowerPoint presentations...

Posted by Jeff Richards at 08:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Yesterday web research firm eMarketer released its forecast for online video advertising and - surprise - the numbers get big fast. eMarketer is projecting a 40% annual growth rate, from roughly $700M in 2007 to more than $4B in 2011.

Combine this forecast with another data set released on Wednesday, from the Pew Internet & American Life Project, which says that more than 70% of consumers who have broadband connections watch and download video online.

Just as in the "traditional" video world (television, movie theatres, etc.), some portion of video consumed via IP connections will be paid for - and it will likely be the same kinds of things that are paid for today (live sporting events, premium movies, etc.). However, the majority of "financing" for consumer's habits will come from advertising. Online video advertising is in its infancy, but the early returns are good - much higher click through rates than for traditional online advertising.

Net/net - a) people are watching a lot of video online + b) ads are going to be the primary source of funding for video consumption = c) online video advertising is expected to spike. There - I saved you from having to read the whole report.

Posted by Jeff Richards at 02:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Yesterday at HostingCon in Chicago I shared the morning keynote podium with Jinesh Varia, Evangelist for Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Chris Gladwin, Chairman and CTO of CleverSafe. A few comments below, and you can view my presentation on "CDN's: What's Next" on SlideShare.

Jinesh started the session by highlighting some of the great work Amazon is doing in the hosted services space with AWS. Perhaps most impressive, he mentioned that Amazon now had more than 265,000 developers signed up to work on the AWS platform, including entire companies that are being built to serve other companies who are using the platform - one example Jinesh gave was Rightscale, whose homepage image appears below. Pretty cool.

Chris spoke next and highlighted some of the amazing things Cleversafe is doing with dispersed storage. Cleversafe's technology is pretty impressive, and perhaps even more interesting is the approach Chris and Co. are taking by opensourcing the platform at Cleversafe.org. I was impressed enough to make an intro for Chris to the VeriSign technology team.

I spoke last, and highlighted three major trends we're seeing in the CDN space (again, see ppt on Slideshare):

1) The Rush to Quality. The rapidly rising consumer demand for high quality video on the Net (vs. the typical lower quality streaming video we see on most UGC sites). Distributors and content owners are meeting this demand through lower costs of distribution via technologies like P2P.

2) Any Time, Any Where. Consumers are increasingly demanding their content be flexible and reachable Any Time, Any Where. This includes in the home, on the pc and mobile phone.

3) Restoring the Value of the Digital Asset. Content owners and distributors are increasingly becoming aware that 10's of millions of pirated videos are being downloaded on filehsharing networks every day. Some estimates put the value of illegal video at more than $5B annually in the US alone (see stats on my ppt). The bulk of consumers who download a video illegally don't go into a store and buy it, or rent it from Netflix. Hopefully this realization spurs additional movement towards more liberal rights agreements and consumer control over their media.

Posted by Jeff Richards at 07:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

On my way to Chicago to speak at HostingCon, I finished reading Eric Jackson's The PayPal Wars. Jackson was an early marketing/product manager at PayPal, and tells a reasonable account of the company's early days through IPO and sale to eBay (the book was published in 2004).

I wouldn't put this on the "all time greats" list, but it was an interesting read while traveling, and it provides some decent insight as to the founding of PayPal through IPO to eventual sale to eBay. All in all, worth reading - if you are interested in startups, venture-financed success stories, etc. Caveat: it reads like it was written by a young marketing guy who was working for his first venture-backed startup, which it was.

Posted by Jeff Richards at 11:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Back in the early 90's I read renownedinvestor Peter Lynch's book Beating the Street. For those of you who don't know, Lynch became famous for running Fidelity Magellan, a mutual fund he grew from $18 million in assets in 1977 to more than $14 billion in 1990 when he retired.

One of Lynch's core principles is to buy stocks in companies you respect and want to buy products from. Based on this concept, in early 2003 I bought shares in Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) at around $15. I bought into GMCR after being impressed by the Keurig "single serve" coffee machines in my office. GMCR at the time owned 25% of Keurig, and has since purchased the rest of the company. I'd never seen a Keurig machine before, but thought the technology was cool and the razor / razor blade business model for the "K Cups" - the little coffee packages - made a lot of sense.

Net/net in this case the Lynch model worked. For a variety of reasons (Keurig being one small component), the company has done exceptionally well, and GMCR shares now trade around $90. You can do the math on the returns here, and see the chart above. I've also put this model to good use buying Salesforce.com and Nordstrom over the years.

Simple concept, often very good returns...

Posted by Jeff Richards at 10:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

I posted a comment on Dan Rayburn's StreamingMedia.com blog this morning in response to his point that pure broadband adoption rates are not what's driving online video adoption. I think we're on the same page here...

Posted by Jeff Richards at 12:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Over on my brother in law Dan Ciruli's blog he announced last week that Digipede had been awarded Microsoft's Innovation Partner of the Year award. The Digipede team has been at it for several years now and have built some very cool grid technology. CONGRATULATIONS to Dan and the whole team!

(And yes, this is a shameless promo for Dan and Digipede)

Posted by Jeff Richards at 10:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)